Interessante post do blog da OCDE. Aqui temos o hábito de divulgar a dívida líquida do governo e acompanhar esse número. Nos últimos anos tem aparecido alguns comentaristas que tentam enfatizar a importância do número bruto, conforme usado com mais destaque em outros países.
Neste post é o oposto. A OCDE chamando atenção para o número líquido. Curioso.
Statistical Insights: Government assets matter too, not just debt – http://oecdinsights.org/2016/01/28/statistical-insights-government-assets-matter-too-not-just-debt/
Publicado em Macroeconomia
Continuando o backlog…
Este texto aqui é interessante pra discussão atual de concentração de riqueza. Mais uma vez tivemos recentemente manchetes comparando a riqueza do 1% x 99% e este arquivo compara a situação atual com o fim do século XIX, onde esta questão estava muito clara.
“As we look over the country today we see two classes of people. The excessively rich and the abject poor, and between them is a gulf ever deepening, ever widening, and the ranks of the poor are continually being recruited from a third class, the well-to-do, which class is rapidly disappearing and being absorbed by the very poor.”
Milford Wriarson Howard (1862-1937), in The American Plutocracy, 1895.
Uma questão importante: Você acha que está fora do 1%? No Brasil pode ser mais fácil do que você pensa estar dentro!
via Civilizing capitalism: “good” and “bad” greed from the enlightenment to Thorstein Veblen (1857-1929) – Munich Personal RePEc Archive.
Publicado em Uncategorized
Este é o início de um trabalho de recuperação do backlog nos rascunhos das postagens, então sim, são artigos mais antigos (três anos) que estou comentando.
Este aqui parece ser uma interessante introdução do tema, criando um modelo multi-setorial de estudos e sugerindo linhas de pesquisa derivadas.
Structural transformation refers to the reallocation of economic activity across the broad sectors agriculture, manufacturing and services. This review article synthesizes and evaluates recent advances in the research on structural transformation. We begin by presenting the stylized facts of structural transformation across time and space. We then develop a multi–sector extension of the one–sector growth model that encompasses the main existing theories of structural transformation. We argue that this multi–sector model serves as a natural benchmark to study structural transformation and that it is able to account for many salient features of structural transformation. We also argue that this multi–sector model delivers new and sharper insights for understanding economic development, regional income convergence, aggregate productivity trends, hours worked, business cycles, and wage inequality. We conclude by suggesting several directions for future research on structural transformation.
via Growth and Structural Transformation.
Publicado em Uncategorized
Artigo interessante na revista mais recente da WEA. Ele propõe um paradigma de evolução alternativo, com uma discussão histórica de como evoluem os padrões de cooperação entre as pessoas, etc. Minha crítica é que ele meio que desiste muito rápido dos evolucionários, na citação abaixo. Para na definição de rotina e não avalia o mecanismo de mutação e toda a literatura vastíssima de inovação que se seguiu. Mas leitura recomendada.
A more sophisticated approach takes the biological sequence ‘variation-selection-transmission’ and seeks factors in the economic world that might vary, be selected, and be transmitted. Veblen identified ‘habits of thought’ for this role. His followers have seen ‘routines’ and ‘rules’ as the variables that generate evolution. But routines and rules are difficult to portray as the drivers of an evolutionary process. They tend to stabilise activity, rather than change it.
Fonte: The evolution of economies | World Economics Association
Publicado em Uncategorized
Taí uma extensão interessante possível pra minha dissertação de mestrado. Quem se habilita?
How should price promotion strategies be modified in an emerging market e.g., India, China compared to those employed in developed markets e.g., USA, Canada? Specifically, how should the presence of middle-class consumers with limited ability to pay, prevalent in an emerging market, influence the depth and frequency of price promotions offered by competing firms? Lay intuition suggests that firms should promote more frequently and offer deeper discounts in emerging markets, in order to effectively sell to limited income, middle-class consumers. We construct a theoretical model that investigates the effect of the middle-class segment on firms\’ price promotion strategies. Contrary to lay intuition, our analysis reveals precisely the opposite results. First, price promotions offered in an emerging market with middle-class consumers are shallower than those offered in a developed market without middle-class consumers. Second, relatively deep price promotions occur less frequently in an emerging market, compared to a developed market. These theoretical findings are consistent with the empirical evidence we gathered from the supermarkets in India and in Canada.
via Price promotions in emerging markets.
A principal barreira de entrada é “moral”, chama-se reputação. Duas chances (podem ser ao mesmo tempo): os líderes (autores mais citados, maiores universidades) começam a contribuir com o movimento aberto, emprestando reputação à publicações livres ou a mão pesada, “universidade pública, pesquisa pública”.
“Academic publishing is the perfect business model to make a lot of money. You have the producer and consumer as the same person: the researcher. And the researcher has no idea how much anything costs.”
Fonte: Can’t Disrupt This: Elsevier and the 25.2 Billion Dollar A Year Academic Publishing Business — Medium
Ótimo perfil do Blanchard no WP. Meus destaques:
“Olivier won the economic argument on balancing austerity and growth,” Lipton says. “The only arguments left involve politics and diplomacy.”
Complicado dizer que ganhou a discussão… mas dentro do Fundo, que recomenda as políticas pode ser o bastante.
While the bailout allowed Greece to avoid a default, the Greek people would wind up paying a steep price. Income and economic output would shrink more than 20 percent, while unemployment would rise to 27 percent as even more debt was piled on debt. For European voters and their politicians, this seemed like a fitting outcome for a profligate country with an uncompetitive economy and a government so corrupt and incompetent that it could not even collect the taxes it was owed. What was never mentioned, at least in public, was that in bailing out the Greeks, European governments were really bailing out their own banks.
De fato, esse ponto passa sempre despercebido. A crise só passou para os governos porque estes bail-out os bancos. Ache ou não correto, não foram os gastos descontrolados previamente.
For an academic who had spent a career searching for economic truth, having to reconcile the supposedly scientific insights of economics with political and bureaucratic realities proved even more challenging than Blanchard had anticipated. What he found most surprising, he said during a relaxing moment on Re, was how quickly a consensus can develop around some question on the basis of what decision-makers read in the press or hear over dinner. People on the outside, he said, have no idea how much time and energy is spent responding to or anticipating the reaction of the media and critics.
Isso sim deve ser desesperador na mudança de ambiente! Deve ter aprendido muito de técnica de convencimento nesses anos.
Fonte: The smartest economist you’ve never heard of – The Washington Post