Além do PIB

Artigo um pouco antigo, mas que fala de alternativas à contabilidade do PIB, assunto que, volta e meia reaparece.

While global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has increased more than three-fold since 1950, economic welfare, as estimated by the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), has actually decreased since 1978. We synthesized estimates of GPI over the 1950–2003 time period for 17 countries for which GPI has been estimated. These 17 countries contain 53% of the global population and 59% of the global GDP. We compared GPI with Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Human Development Index (HDI), Ecological Footprint, Biocapacity, Gini coefficient, and Life Satisfaction scores. Results show a significant variation among these countries, but some major trends. We also estimated a global GPI/capita over the 1950–2003 period. Global GPI/capita peaked in 1978, about the same time that global Ecological Footprint exceeded global Biocapacity. Life Satisfaction in almost all countries has also not improved significantly since 1975. Globally, GPI/capita does not increase beyond a GDP/capita of around $7000/capita. If we distributed income more equitably around the planet, the current world GDP ($67 trillion/yr) could support 9.6 billion people at $7000/capita. While GPI is not the perfect economic welfare indicator, it is a far better approximation than GDP. Development policies need to shift to better account for real welfare and not merely GDP growth.

via Beyond GDP: Measuring and achieving global genuine progress.

De bônus um quadrinho recente sobre o assunto.

RWER 74

Saiu.

Fonte: real-world economics review

OCDE e a dívida

Interessante post do blog da OCDE. Aqui temos o hábito de divulgar a dívida líquida do governo e acompanhar esse número. Nos últimos anos tem aparecido alguns comentaristas que tentam enfatizar a importância do número bruto, conforme usado com mais destaque em outros países.
Neste post é o oposto. A OCDE chamando atenção para o número líquido. Curioso.

Statistical Insights: Government assets matter too, not just debt – http://oecdinsights.org/2016/01/28/statistical-insights-government-assets-matter-too-not-just-debt/

Ganância boa e má?

Continuando o backlog…

Este texto aqui é interessante pra discussão atual de concentração de riqueza. Mais uma vez tivemos recentemente manchetes comparando a riqueza do 1% x 99% e este arquivo compara a situação atual com o fim do século XIX, onde esta questão estava muito clara.

“As we look over the country today we see two classes of people. The excessively rich and the abject poor, and between them is a gulf ever deepening, ever widening, and the ranks of the poor are continually being recruited from a third class, the well-to-do, which class is rapidly disappearing and being absorbed by the very poor.”

Milford Wriarson Howard (1862-1937), in The American Plutocracy, 1895.

Uma questão importante: Você acha que está fora do 1%? No Brasil pode ser mais fácil do que você pensa estar dentro!

via Civilizing capitalism: “good” and “bad” greed from the enlightenment to Thorstein Veblen (1857-1929) – Munich Personal RePEc Archive.

Crescimento e mudança estrutural

Este é o início de um trabalho de recuperação do backlog nos rascunhos das postagens, então sim, são artigos mais antigos (três anos) que estou comentando.

Este aqui parece ser uma interessante introdução do tema, criando um modelo multi-setorial de estudos e sugerindo linhas de pesquisa derivadas.

Structural transformation refers to the reallocation of economic activity across the broad sectors agriculture, manufacturing and services. This review article synthesizes and evaluates recent advances in the research on structural transformation. We begin by presenting the stylized facts of structural transformation across time and space. We then develop a multi–sector extension of the one–sector growth model that encompasses the main existing theories of structural transformation. We argue that this multi–sector model serves as a natural benchmark to study structural transformation and that it is able to account for many salient features of structural transformation. We also argue that this multi–sector model delivers new and sharper insights for understanding economic development, regional income convergence, aggregate productivity trends, hours worked, business cycles, and wage inequality. We conclude by suggesting several directions for future research on structural transformation.

via Growth and Structural Transformation.

Evolução das economias

Artigo interessante na revista mais recente da WEA. Ele propõe um paradigma de evolução alternativo, com uma discussão histórica de como evoluem os padrões de cooperação entre as pessoas, etc. Minha crítica é que ele meio que desiste muito rápido dos evolucionários, na citação abaixo. Para na definição de rotina e não avalia o mecanismo de mutação e toda a literatura vastíssima de inovação que se seguiu. Mas leitura recomendada.

A more sophisticated approach takes the biological sequence ‘variation-selection-transmission’ and seeks factors in the economic world that might vary, be selected, and be transmitted. Veblen identified ‘habits of thought’ for this role. His followers have seen ‘routines’ and ‘rules’ as the variables that generate evolution. But routines and rules are difficult to portray as the drivers of an evolutionary process. They tend to stabilise activity, rather than change it.

Fonte: The evolution of economies | World Economics Association

Promoções nos emergentes

Taí uma extensão interessante possível pra minha dissertação de mestrado. Quem se habilita?

How should price promotion strategies be modified in an emerging market e.g., India, China compared to those employed in developed markets e.g., USA, Canada? Specifically, how should the presence of middle-class consumers with limited ability to pay, prevalent in an emerging market, influence the depth and frequency of price promotions offered by competing firms? Lay intuition suggests that firms should promote more frequently and offer deeper discounts in emerging markets, in order to effectively sell to limited income, middle-class consumers. We construct a theoretical model that investigates the effect of the middle-class segment on firms\’ price promotion strategies. Contrary to lay intuition, our analysis reveals precisely the opposite results. First, price promotions offered in an emerging market with middle-class consumers are shallower than those offered in a developed market without middle-class consumers. Second, relatively deep price promotions occur less frequently in an emerging market, compared to a developed market. These theoretical findings are consistent with the empirical evidence we gathered from the supermarkets in India and in Canada.

via Price promotions in emerging markets.